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New Mexico St at Sam Houston

Week 8 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

New Mexico St2-4
at
Sam Houston1-5

Wed, Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET · ESPN2

Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · Huntsville, TX

☀️ 77° Clear

The Call How this works

GordStats likes New Mexico St by 2.3, the book by 2.5 — they agree, no lean.

NMSU 56%win chanceSHSU 44%
GordStatsNMSU by 2.356% to win · NMSU 25–SHSU 23
DraftKingsNMSU -2.5O/U 47.5
ESPN FPINMSU 56%win chance
Watch score16Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • New Mexico St's defensive front (27th) meets Sam Houston's offensive line (131st).
  • New Mexico St's big-play offense (43rd) meets Sam Houston's big-play defense (128th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

New Mexico St Offense vs Sam Houston Defense

NMSU offSHSU def
EPA per play
125th+0.0198th+0.15
Run EPA
94th+0.04134th+0.15
Pass EPA
122nd+0.0950th+0.15
Success rate
91st40%95th44%
Explosiveness
43rd0.94128th0.97
Line yards
79th2.93116th3.12
Havoc
119th17%20th20%
Points per trip
102nd3.4166th3.33
Third downs
68th41%38th33%

New Mexico St: 65 plays a game (90th most) · passes on 51% of plays

Sam Houston Offense vs New Mexico St Defense

SHSU offNMSU def
EPA per play
119th+0.0271st+0.11
Run EPA
119th+0.0285th+0.08
Pass EPA
121st+0.1073rd+0.18
Success rate
78th41%73rd42%
Explosiveness
67th0.9352nd0.92
Line yards
131st2.7027th2.82
Havoc
131st19%98th14%
Points per trip
126th2.70108th4.00
Third downs
92nd37%102nd41%

Sam Houston: 66 plays a game (85th most) · passes on 60% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

New Mexico St

  • QBTrey Hedden+0.24 EPA a dropback · 125 dropbacks · 74th of 130 QBs
  • RBJames Jones+0.18 EPA a carry · 89 carries · 72nd of 194 RBs
  • WRTyler King-0.04 EPA a target · 45 targets · 378th of 390 WRs
  • WRAJ Williams III+0.48 EPA a target · 20 targets · 196th of 390 WRs

Sam Houston

  • QBLandyn Locke+0.21 EPA a dropback · 195 dropbacks · 85th of 130 QBs
  • RBAlton McCaskill-0.09 EPA a carry · 49 carries · 177th of 194 RBs
  • WRGrady O'Neill+0.40 EPA a target · 39 targets · 241st of 390 WRs
  • WRChris Reed+0.41 EPA a target · 32 targets · 237th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

New Mexico St

  • L3-22at FIU−17
  • W34-13vs Western KY+20
  • L18-42vs New Mexico−12
  • L19-29at Hawai'i−4

Sam Houston

  • L3-16vs Western KY−12
  • L3-35at Liberty−20
  • L14-49at Texas Tech−3
  • W59-0vs Nicholls+40

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).