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New Mexico St

Updated Thu, Oct 15 · 11:35 PM ET

2–4 · 112th of 138
Rated -12.3 points vs an average FBS team · scoring -1.5 vs the average game

Projected Record

SourceW–LHow
GordStats5.1–6.9Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left
ESPN FPI4.9–7.2ESPN's simulation of the full schedule

Advanced

Offense EPA/play+0.01125th of 138
Defense EPA/play+0.1171st of 138
Success rate40.1%91st of 138
Success allowed41.9%73rd of 138
Explosiveness0.9443rd of 138
Defensive havoc14.2%98th of 138
3rd down41.0%68th of 138
Turnover margin/g-0.83126th of 138

Opponent-adjusted where it can be; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.

Schedule

OpponentDateResultExpectedWin
1at Florida StAug 29L 17–34-26.8—
1vs MercyhurstSep 5W 51–14+21.2—
2at Hawai'iSep 12L 19–29-6.4—
4vs New MexicoSep 26L 18–42-11.7—
5vs Western KYOct 1W 34–13+1.4—
6at FIUOct 7L 3–22-2.2—
8at Sam HoustonOct 21proj 25–23+2.356%
9vs Jax StateOct 28proj 26–27-1.247%
10vs LibertyNov 7proj 21–28-7.731%
11at Missouri StNov 14proj 26–25+1.253%
12vs DelawareNov 21proj 29–23+5.263%
13at MTSUNov 28proj 27–23+4.361%

Games without a final yet show this model's projected score, tagged proj. Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff, so a result can be read against what was expected of it. Win is the chance of winning an upcoming game. How well any of this has worked is on the predictions page.