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South Alabama at Marshall

Week 8 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

South Alabama4-2
at
Marshall3-3

Tue, Oct 20 · 7:30 PM ET · ESPN2

Joan C. Edwards Stadium · Huntington, WV

⛅ 60° Intermittent clouds

The Call How this works

GordStats likes South Alabama by 2.2, the book by 3: siding with Marshall +3.

On the total, GordStats says 65 to the book's 62.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

USA 56%win chanceMRSH 44%
GordStatsUSA by 2.256% to win · USA 33–MRSH 31
DraftKingsUSA -3O/U 62.5
ESPN FPIUSA 70%win chance
Watch score24Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • South Alabama's passing game (25th) meets Marshall's pass defense (134th).
  • Marshall's passing game (52nd) meets South Alabama's pass defense (119th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

South Alabama Offense vs Marshall Defense

USA offMRSH def
EPA per play
26th+0.18131st+0.23
Run EPA
20th+0.12112th+0.11
Pass EPA
25th+0.28134th+0.34
Success rate
60th42%128th47%
Explosiveness
7th0.9734th0.91
Line yards
53rd3.00125th3.16
Havoc
35th13%114th13%
Points per trip
36th4.40106th3.97
Third downs
46th44%112th43%

South Alabama: 73 plays a game (20th most) · passes on 35% of plays

Marshall Offense vs South Alabama Defense

MRSH offUSA def
EPA per play
79th+0.09132nd+0.23
Run EPA
101st+0.04131st+0.14
Pass EPA
52nd+0.21119th+0.29
Success rate
58th42%137th50%
Explosiveness
90th0.92137th0.99
Line yards
76th2.94108th3.06
Havoc
116th17%52nd17%
Points per trip
129th2.50134th4.75
Third downs
75th41%108th43%

Marshall: 72 plays a game (30th most) · passes on 50% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

South Alabama

  • QBJared Hollins+0.48 EPA a dropback · 81 dropbacks · 17th of 130 QBs
  • RBPJ Martin+0.18 EPA a carry · 88 carries · 74th of 194 RBs
  • WRJeremiah Jones-Thomas+0.62 EPA a target · 29 targets · 134th of 390 WRs
  • WRAnthony Eager+0.98 EPA a target · 22 targets · 23rd of 390 WRs

Marshall

  • QBZion Turner+0.34 EPA a dropback · 48 dropbacks
  • RBJoshon Barbie+0.06 EPA a carry · 46 carries · 129th of 194 RBs
  • TEToby Payne+0.01 EPA a target · 31 targets · 100th of 114 TEs
  • WRXayvion Turner-Bradshaw+0.87 EPA a target · 31 targets · 47th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

South Alabama

  • W56-49at Arkansas St+9
  • W52-35vs UL Monroe0
  • L21-45at Kentucky−9
  • W41-36vs Ohio+1

Marshall

  • L21-27vs Coastal−9
  • L17-45at James Madison+1
  • W36-35vs Gardner-Webb−29
  • W30-24at Missouri St+7

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).