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Commanders at Giants

Week 10 · Final

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Commanders2-5-1 going in
24–21Final
Giants5-2-1 going in

Thu, Nov 12 · 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video

MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ

The Call How this works

GordStats had Giants by 2.3✗, the book by 1.5 — 0.8 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 46 to the book's 40.5: a lean to the Over✓.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

WSH 43%win chanceNYG 57%
GordStatsNYG by 2.357% to win · WSH 22–NYG 24
BookNYG -1.5O/U 40.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Giants' red-zone offense (12th) meets Commanders' red-zone defense (30th).
  • Giants' third-down defense (15th) meets Commanders' third-down offense (31st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense

WSH offNYG def
EPA per play
22nd-0.0311th-0.02
Pass EPA
20th+0.0311th+0.02
Run EPA
22nd-0.1414th-0.09
Success rate
20th42%13th43%
Explosive plays
23rd7%13th8%
Points per drive
22nd1.9011th1.94
Red zone TD
18th57%32nd80%
Third downs
31st33%15th39%
Sacks
16th6%22nd5%
Turnovers
4th7%17th11%

Commanders: 30.8 sec a snap (6th fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense

NYG offWSH def
EPA per play
16th+0.0220th+0.04
Pass EPA
13th+0.1418th+0.08
Run EPA
20th-0.1326th-0.04
Success rate
24th41%27th46%
Explosive plays
19th8%7th7%
Points per drive
18th2.0118th2.23
Red zone TD
12th63%30th72%
Third downs
12th41%16th40%
Sacks
25th8%29th5%
Turnovers
20th12%9th14%

Giants: 32.7 sec a snap (24th fastest) · passes 4% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Commanders

  • QBJayden Daniels+0.08 EPA a dropback · CPOE +3.6 · 254 dropbacks · 14th of 31
  • RBJacory Croskey-Merritt-0.10 EPA a carry · 3.6 yds · 67 carries · 24th of 38

Giants

  • QBJameis Winston-0.02 EPA a dropback · CPOE -6.1 · 172 dropbacks · 22nd of 31
  • RBCam Skattebo-0.08 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 110 carries · 19th of 38
  • WRMalachi Fields+0.69 EPA a target · 65% caught · 31 targets · 5th in EPA

Recent Form

Commanders

  • L13–20vs Rams−2
  • W27–10vs Eagles+14
  • L17–23at 49ers+4
  • T27–27vs Giants−4

Giants

  • W19–11at Eagles+9
  • W27–21at Texans+17
  • L27–34vs Saints−6
  • T27–27at Commanders+4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.