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Raiders at Broncos

Week 11 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Raiders4-5
at
Broncos7-2

Sun, Nov 22 · 4:25 PM ET · CBS

Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Broncos by 8.4, the book by 8.5 — they agree, no lean.

On the total, GordStats says 47 to the book's 41.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

LV 26%win chanceDEN 74%
GordStatsDEN by 8.474% to win · LV 19–DEN 28
DraftKingsDEN -8.5O/U 41.5
ESPNDEN 85%win chance
Watch score48

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Broncos' offense (13th) meets Raiders' defense (30th).
  • Broncos' big-play defense (11th) meets Raiders' big-play offense (26th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense

LV offDEN def
EPA per play
15th+0.028th-0.05
Pass EPA
11th+0.167th-0.02
Run EPA
29th-0.2125th-0.05
Success rate
13th44%7th41%
Explosive plays
26th7%11th8%
Points per drive
7th2.499th1.88
Red zone TD
21st54%10th50%
Third downs
7th45%21st42%
Sacks
2nd3%12th7%
Turnovers
18th12%13th12%

Raiders: 32.3 sec a snap (18th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense

DEN offLV def
EPA per play
13th+0.0330th+0.12
Pass EPA
14th+0.1030th+0.28
Run EPA
17th-0.1020th-0.08
Success rate
27th41%31st49%
Explosive plays
29th6%30th10%
Points per drive
17th2.0131st2.72
Red zone TD
11th63%27th68%
Third downs
32nd33%27th46%
Sacks
4th4%17th6%
Turnovers
3rd6%5th15%

Broncos: 31.0 sec a snap (7th fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Raiders

  • QBKirk Cousins+0.17 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.2 · 289 dropbacks · 11th of 31
  • RBAshton Jeanty-0.25 EPA a carry · 3.3 yds · 99 carries · 36th of 38
  • TEBrock Bowers+0.39 EPA a target · 67% caught · 64 targets · 37th in EPA

Broncos

  • QBBo Nix+0.04 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.0 · 284 dropbacks · 17th of 31
  • RBJ.K. Dobbins-0.19 EPA a carry · 3.3 yds · 98 carries · 32nd of 38

Recent Form

Raiders

  • L17–38at 49ers−13
  • W38–33at Jets+6
  • L21–35vs Rams−8
  • L30–33vs Bills+5

Broncos

  • W26–21at Panthers+1
  • W28–24vs Chiefs+3
  • W30–16at Cardinals+9
  • W17–14vs Seahawks+6

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.