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Panthers at Saints

Week 10 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Panthers3-5
at
Saints3-5

Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats calls it a coin flip, the book has Saints by 2.5 — 2.3 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

CAR 49%win chanceNO 51%
GordStatsCoin flip51% to win · CAR 23–NO 25
DraftKingsNO -2.5O/U 48.5
ESPNNO 50%win chance
Watch score27Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Saints' red-zone offense (4th) meets Panthers' red-zone defense (31st).
  • Panthers' scoring offense (11th) meets Saints' scoring defense (29th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense

CAR offNO def
EPA per play
17th+0.0025th+0.08
Pass EPA
21st+0.0222nd+0.13
Run EPA
12th-0.0624th-0.05
Success rate
21st42%29th47%
Explosive plays
13th8%18th8%
Points per drive
11th2.2129th2.51
Red zone TD
7th66%12th53%
Third downs
19th38%32nd50%
Sacks
23rd8%8th8%
Turnovers
17th11%29th8%

Panthers: 28.9 sec a snap (1st fastest) · passes 8% more than expected

Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense

NO offCAR def
EPA per play
20th-0.0128th+0.08
Pass EPA
18th+0.0525th+0.16
Run EPA
21st-0.1417th-0.08
Success rate
18th43%25th45%
Explosive plays
28th7%5th6%
Points per drive
14th2.1627th2.41
Red zone TD
4th69%31st75%
Third downs
8th43%29th48%
Sacks
14th6%32nd4%
Turnovers
28th16%19th10%

Saints: 30.5 sec a snap (3rd fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Panthers

  • QBBryce Young+0.03 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.9 · 308 dropbacks · 18th of 31
  • RBChuba Hubbard+0.05 EPA a carry · 4.6 yds · 122 carries · 6th of 38
  • WRTetairoa McMillan+0.44 EPA a target · 66% caught · 62 targets · 27th in EPA
  • TEDarren Waller+0.40 EPA a target · 67% caught · 33 targets · 33rd in EPA

Saints

  • QBTyler Shough+0.06 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.6 · 314 dropbacks · 16th of 31
  • WRChris Olave+0.45 EPA a target · 69% caught · 74 targets · 24th in EPA
  • WRDevaughn Vele+0.43 EPA a target · 67% caught · 46 targets · 29th in EPA

Recent Form

Panthers

  • L21–26vs Broncos−1
  • L19–27at Packers−3
  • L13–43vs Buccaneers−32
  • W25–14at Eagles+11

Saints

  • W23–22vs Browns−1
  • L10–16vs Steelers−3
  • W34–27at Giants+6
  • L13–23vs Vikings−5

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.