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Dolphins at Colts

Week 10 preview

Updated Sat, Nov 14 · 1:54 PM ET

Dolphins1-7
at
Colts2-7

Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Colts by 7.1, the book by 4.5 — 2.6 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats says 46 to the book's 37.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

MIA 30%win chanceIND 70%
GordStatsIND by 7.170% to win · MIA 19–IND 27
DraftKingsIND -4.5O/U 37.5
Assumes outMalik WillisDolphins quarterback
ESPNIND 82%win chance
Watch score12

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Colts' run game (5th) meets Dolphins' run defense (30th).
  • Colts' pass rush (16th) meets Dolphins' pass protection (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense

MIA offIND def
EPA per play
26th-0.0923rd+0.05
Pass EPA
24th-0.0320th+0.10
Run EPA
23rd-0.1532nd+0.01
Success rate
29th38%10th43%
Explosive plays
24th7%31st11%
Points per drive
28th1.7025th2.40
Red zone TD
28th48%18th62%
Third downs
10th42%5th33%
Sacks
30th9%16th6%
Turnovers
22nd14%31st6%

Dolphins: 33.4 sec a snap (25th fastest) · passes 8% less than expected

Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense

IND offMIA def
EPA per play
29th-0.1032nd+0.15
Pass EPA
30th-0.1732nd+0.30
Run EPA
5th+0.0030th+0.01
Success rate
19th42%32nd52%
Explosive plays
21st7%26th9%
Points per drive
26th1.8032nd2.74
Red zone TD
16th58%15th59%
Third downs
22nd37%30th49%
Sacks
22nd7%28th5%
Turnovers
30th17%24th10%

Colts: 31.8 sec a snap (14th fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Dolphins

  • RBOllie Gordon II-0.06 EPA a carry · 4.3 yds · 99 carries · 18th of 38

Colts

  • QBDaniel Jones-0.18 EPA a dropback · CPOE -4.6 · 313 dropbacks · 29th of 31
  • RBJonathan Taylor-0.08 EPA a carry · 4.1 yds · 160 carries · 21st of 38
  • WRJosh Downs+0.34 EPA a target · 60% caught · 53 targets · 40th in EPA

Recent Form

Dolphins

  • L9–19vs Lions−4
  • L19–24vs Patriots+2
  • W28–25at Jets+5
  • L24–31vs Bengals−4

Colts

  • L23–27vs Cowboys−4
  • L7–42at Jaguars−28
  • L10–16at Vikings0
  • L20–26vs Titans−15

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.