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Vikings at Packers

Week 10 preview

Updated Sat, Nov 14 · 5:48 PM ET

Vikings6-2
at
Packers6-3

Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI

41° Mostly cloudy

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Packers by 5.2, the book by 2.5 — 2.7 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats says 39 to the book's 42.5: a lean to the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

MIN 35%win chanceGB 65%
GordStatsGB by 5.265% to win · MIN 17–GB 22
DraftKingsGB -2.5O/U 42.5
Assumes outKyler MurrayVikings quarterback
ESPNGB 55%win chance
Watch score74Toss-up · Winning teams

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Packers' defense (6th) meets Vikings' offense (31st).
  • Vikings' run defense (10th) meets Packers' run game (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense

MIN offGB def
EPA per play
31st-0.156th-0.07
Pass EPA
28th-0.125th-0.06
Run EPA
27th-0.1913th-0.11
Success rate
30th37%16th43%
Explosive plays
18th8%6th7%
Points per drive
30th1.648th1.87
Red zone TD
25th50%17th62%
Third downs
28th35%22nd42%
Sacks
27th9%10th7%
Turnovers
12th9%2nd19%

Vikings: 32.4 sec a snap (19th fastest) · passes 4% less than expected

Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense

GB offMIN def
EPA per play
10th+0.072nd-0.18
Pass EPA
5th+0.221st-0.18
Run EPA
30th-0.2610th-0.14
Success rate
22nd42%1st37%
Explosive plays
7th9%12th8%
Points per drive
13th2.181st1.29
Red zone TD
20th54%1st26%
Third downs
18th38%3rd31%
Sacks
9th5%1st11%
Turnovers
14th10%7th14%

Packers: 31.8 sec a snap (15th fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Vikings

  • RBAaron Jones-0.19 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 107 carries · 33rd of 38
  • TET.J. Hockenson+0.47 EPA a target · 79% caught · 42 targets · 22nd in EPA

Packers

  • QBJordan Love+0.22 EPA a dropback · CPOE +1.7 · 311 dropbacks · 6th of 31
  • WRChristian Watson+0.58 EPA a target · 62% caught · 66 targets · 14th in EPA
  • TETucker Kraft+0.42 EPA a target · 70% caught · 47 targets · 31st in EPA

Recent Form

Vikings

  • L6–23vs Bills−16
  • L15–19at Lions−4
  • W16–10vs Colts0
  • W23–13at Saints+5

Packers

  • W45–27at Patriots+21
  • W27–19vs Panthers+3
  • L17–20at Lions0
  • W23–13vs Cowboys+6

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.