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Titans at Cowboys

Week 11 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Titans1-7
at
Cowboys4-5

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Cowboys by 6.5, the book by 7.5 — 1 point apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

TEN 31%win chanceDAL 69%
GordStatsDAL by 6.569% to win · TEN 22–DAL 28
DraftKingsDAL -7.5O/U 51.5
ESPNDAL 80%win chance
Watch score38

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Cowboys' offense (6th) meets Titans' defense (26th).
  • Titans' pass protection (8th) meets Cowboys' pass rush (23rd).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Titans Offense vs Cowboys Defense

TEN offDAL def
EPA per play
28th-0.1031st+0.13
Pass EPA
27th-0.0827th+0.17
Run EPA
18th-0.1131st+0.01
Success rate
26th41%26th46%
Explosive plays
25th7%22nd9%
Points per drive
27th1.7128th2.48
Red zone TD
23rd52%28th69%
Third downs
25th36%31st49%
Sacks
8th5%23rd5%
Turnovers
21st12%27th8%

Titans: 30.0 sec a snap (2nd fastest) · passes 6% less than expected

Cowboys Offense vs Titans Defense

DAL offTEN def
EPA per play
6th+0.1026th+0.08
Pass EPA
8th+0.1826th+0.17
Run EPA
10th-0.0418th-0.08
Success rate
8th47%30th47%
Explosive plays
20th8%24th9%
Points per drive
6th2.7322nd2.35
Red zone TD
5th68%20th65%
Third downs
5th45%25th44%
Sacks
5th4%14th7%
Turnovers
9th9%11th13%

Cowboys: 30.7 sec a snap (5th fastest) · passes 2% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Titans

  • QBCam Ward-0.07 EPA a dropback · CPOE -3.2 · 232 dropbacks · 27th of 31
  • RBTony Pollard-0.05 EPA a carry · 4.6 yds · 127 carries · 16th of 38

Cowboys

  • QBDak Prescott+0.18 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.0 · 324 dropbacks · 10th of 31
  • RBJavonte Williams+0.00 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 140 carries · 10th of 38
  • WRCeeDee Lamb+0.36 EPA a target · 67% caught · 96 targets · 39th in EPA
  • WRGeorge Pickens+0.39 EPA a target · 63% caught · 52 targets · 38th in EPA

Recent Form

Titans

  • L36–43at Bengals+3
  • L24–27vs Browns−1
  • W26–20at Colts+15
  • L3–26vs Texans−17

Cowboys

  • W27–23at Colts+4
  • L30–33vs Cardinals−8
  • W38–21at Eagles+16
  • L13–23at Packers−6

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.