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Jets at Chargers

Week 11 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Jets2-7
at
Chargers0-8

Sun, Nov 22 · 4:05 PM ET · Fox

SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Chargers by 2.6, the book by 1.5 — 1.1 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

NYJ 42%win chanceLAC 58%
GordStatsLAC by 2.658% to win · NYJ 20–LAC 23
DraftKingsLAC -1.5O/U 42.5
ESPNLAC 62%win chance
Watch score14Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Jets' run defense (9th) meets Chargers' run game (32nd).
  • Chargers' red-zone defense (11th) meets Jets' red-zone offense (31st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Jets Offense vs Chargers Defense

NYJ offLAC def
EPA per play
19th-0.0113th-0.01
Pass EPA
17th+0.0815th+0.06
Run EPA
19th-0.1227th-0.04
Success rate
11th45%21st45%
Explosive plays
9th9%25th9%
Points per drive
19th2.0023rd2.36
Red zone TD
31st41%11th53%
Third downs
26th36%9th35%
Sacks
28th9%24th5%
Turnovers
7th8%14th12%

Jets: 33.7 sec a snap (28th fastest) · passes 3% less than expected

Chargers Offense vs Jets Defense

LAC offNYJ def
EPA per play
32nd-0.2621st+0.04
Pass EPA
32nd-0.2229th+0.19
Run EPA
32nd-0.329th-0.15
Success rate
32nd35%28th47%
Explosive plays
30th6%15th8%
Points per drive
32nd1.2726th2.40
Red zone TD
29th47%26th67%
Third downs
30th34%23rd43%
Sacks
31st11%11th7%
Turnovers
31st19%22nd10%

Chargers: 31.6 sec a snap (13th fastest) · passes 12% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Jets

  • QBGeno Smith+0.08 EPA a dropback · CPOE +4.8 · 283 dropbacks · 15th of 31
  • RBBraelon Allen-0.01 EPA a carry · 5.1 yds · 114 carries · 12th of 38
  • WRGarrett Wilson+0.42 EPA a target · 69% caught · 61 targets · 32nd in EPA
  • WRAdonai Mitchell+0.56 EPA a target · 53% caught · 30 targets · 16th in EPA

Chargers

  • QBJustin Herbert-0.24 EPA a dropback · CPOE -6.1 · 243 dropbacks · 30th of 31
  • RBOmarion Hampton-0.36 EPA a carry · 3.3 yds · 94 carries · 38th of 38

Recent Form

Jets

  • L12–35at Chiefs−15
  • L33–38vs Raiders−6
  • L25–28vs Dolphins−5
  • L19–26at Patriots+3

Chargers

  • L22–44vs Texans−18
  • L9–24at Rams−8
  • L6–22at Chiefs−10
  • L17–23vs Broncos−4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.