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Vikings vs 49ers

Week 11 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Vikings6-2
vs
49ers7-1

Sun, Nov 22 · 8:20 PM ET · NBC

Neutral site · Estadio Banorte · Mexico City, Mexico

The Call How this works

GordStats likes 49ers by 5.8, the book by 3.5 — 2.3 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats says 41 to the book's 45.5: a lean to the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

MIN 33%win chanceSF 67%
GordStatsSF by 5.867% to win · MIN 18–SF 23
DraftKingsSF -3.5O/U 45.5
Assumes outKyler MurrayVikings quarterback
ESPNSF 64%win chance
Watch score81Upset watch · Winning teams

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • 49ers' run defense (4th) meets Vikings' run game (27th).
  • Vikings' takeaway defense (7th) meets 49ers' ball security (19th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Vikings Offense vs 49ers Defense

MIN offSF def
EPA per play
31st-0.159th-0.04
Pass EPA
28th-0.1212th+0.02
Run EPA
27th-0.194th-0.19
Success rate
30th37%20th44%
Explosive plays
18th8%1st4%
Points per drive
30th1.6413th2.00
Red zone TD
25th50%8th48%
Third downs
28th35%19th41%
Sacks
27th9%26th5%
Turnovers
12th9%8th14%

Vikings: 32.4 sec a snap (19th fastest) · passes 4% less than expected

49ers Offense vs Vikings Defense

SF offMIN def
EPA per play
2nd+0.202nd-0.18
Pass EPA
1st+0.321st-0.18
Run EPA
3rd+0.0210th-0.14
Success rate
1st54%1st37%
Explosive plays
2nd11%12th8%
Points per drive
2nd2.951st1.29
Red zone TD
1st85%1st26%
Third downs
2nd52%3rd31%
Sacks
1st3%1st11%
Turnovers
19th12%7th14%

49ers: 33.5 sec a snap (26th fastest) · passes 2% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Vikings

  • RBAaron Jones-0.19 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 107 carries · 33rd of 38
  • TET.J. Hockenson+0.47 EPA a target · 79% caught · 42 targets · 22nd in EPA

49ers

  • QBBrock Purdy+0.35 EPA a dropback · CPOE +5.4 · 242 dropbacks · 1st of 31
  • RBChristian McCaffrey+0.16 EPA a carry · 4.6 yds · 94 carries · 1st of 38
  • WRMike Evans+1.02 EPA a target · 69% caught · 39 targets · 1st in EPA

Recent Form

Vikings

  • L6–23vs Bills−16
  • L15–19at Lions−4
  • W16–10vs Colts0
  • W23–13at Saints+5

49ers

  • W38–17vs Raiders+13
  • L20–29at Falcons−13
  • W23–17vs Commanders−4
  • W32–29at Seahawks+7

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.