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Iowa State
Updated Thu, Oct 15 · 11:35 PM ET
3–3 · 44th of 138
Rated +7.2 points vs an average FBS team · scoring -1.8 vs the average game
Projected Record
| Source | W–L | How |
|---|---|---|
| GordStats | 5.8–6.2 | Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left |
| ESPN FPI | 5.4–6.6 | ESPN's simulation of the full schedule |
Advanced
Offense EPA/play+0.1068th of 138
Defense EPA/play+0.1386th of 138
Success rate40.5%81st of 138
Success allowed42.3%80th of 138
Explosiveness0.9613th of 138
Defensive havoc15.4%79th of 138
3rd down31.0%126th of 138
Turnover margin/g+0.5038th of 138
Opponent-adjusted where it can be; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.
Schedule
| Opponent | Date | Result | Expected | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 vs SE Missouri | Sep 5 | W 38–10 | +43.2 | — |
2 at Iowa | Sep 12 | L 13–16 | -13.5 | — |
3 vs Bowling Green | Sep 19 | W 55–7 | +31.4 | — |
4 vs Utah | Sep 26 | L 17–31 | -6.7 | — |
5 vs West Virginia | Oct 3 | W 45–42 | +12.0 | — |
6 at BYU | Oct 9 | L 10–24 | -10.1 | — |
8 at Arizona | Oct 24 | proj 21–31 | -9.6 | 27% |
9 vs Oklahoma St | Oct 31 | proj 28–24 | +3.8 | 60% |
10 at Baylor | Nov 7 | proj 24–28 | -4.5 | 39% |
11 vs Cincinnati | Nov 14 | proj 29–24 | +4.8 | 62% |
12 at UCF | Nov 20 | proj 24–26 | -2.4 | 44% |
13 vs Kansas St | Nov 28 | proj 27–26 | +0.8 | 52% |
Games without a final yet show this model's projected score, tagged proj. Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff, so a result can be read against what was expected of it. Win is the chance of winning an upcoming game. How well any of this has worked is on the predictions page.